5 Are We Heading Towards a Future We Cannot Control?
Payam Rahmati and Yaser Shamsi
Introduction
Recent technological advances have led to the emergence of new AI tools, which are starting to transform nearly all aspects of our lives. As more intelligent and capable tools emerge nearly every day, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a hypothetical type of AI that could surpass human capabilities, has sparked significant attention across different groups. In contrast to narrow AI, which often relies on algorithms and is limited in its capabilities, AGI can “reason and adapt to new environments and different types of data” (Betz, 2023, para. 6). While we are still a long way from developing such AI that can potentially outsmart humans, some experts and industry representatives are raising concerns about control, safety, and unforeseen consequences. Some scholars, known as “doomers”, have even warned that such AI could become hostile to humans and threaten our existence. Many of these government officials, scholars, and other experts believe there should be restrictions on developing such highly autonomous systems that could surpass human intelligence.
Nevertheless, others, such as AGI developers and researchers, known as “boomers”, argue against placing restrictions on the development of AGI, emphasizing the many potential benefits that AGI could create for society. They highlight the importance of freedom in AI research development and point out that economic growth could be hindered if strict restrictions are placed on the development of AGI.
In summary, doomers and boomers hold strong views regarding the necessity of regulating the advancement of AI. In this simulation, you will take one of these sides. In the next section of this chapter, you will learn more about the pros and cons of regulating AI development and the important skills you will gain by participating in this simulation.
Overview
This simulation invites you to think critically about the regulation of AGI development and reflect on the potential implications of regulatory control. Discussions will be crucial in understanding whether regulatory policies need to be implemented to oversee the development of artificial general intelligence. The simulation begins with an introduction to AGI and delves into potential timelines for its future introduction. Then, you will learn about the potential benefits and risks of AGI development. The simulation enables you to synthesize relevant information from credible sources to construct a compelling argument in favor of or against the necessity of regulating AGI development and articulate your stance effectively. After reflecting on the role-play, you will have the opportunity to apply your knowledge by writing a newspaper article, producing a podcast episode, or writing an essay.
As shown below, the simulation has five distinct phases.
How the simulation works
| Phase | Phase Description | Activities |
| 1 | Activation | Discussions 1 & 2
Reading 1 |
| 2 | Comprehension | Listening 1
Reading 2 Role Assignment / Role Preparation |
| 3 | Simulation | Role Play |
| 4 | Reflection | Debriefing Activity
Critical Reflections |
| 5 | Application | Newspaper Article, Podcast, or Essay |
You will gain a number of important skills as you participate in the simulation. These skills are sequenced from simple tasks such as defining and describing to more complex tasks such as synthesizing and evaluating.
After completing this simulation, you will be able to:
- define AGI and key terms related to its development
- describe the potential benefits and risks associated with AGI development
- compare narrow AI with general AI
- make predictions about the future of humankind with the emergence of AGI
- summarize the pros and cons of AGI development
- synthesize information about AGI development using both lectures and reading passages
- argue for or against AGI regulation
- evaluate the positions taken in the simulation
Phase 1: Activation
In this simulation stage, you will build background knowledge of AI and AGI to prepare yourself for the listening, reading, and research activities in Phase 2: Comprehension. This stage will also allow you to share your initial insights and experiences with your classmates.
Discussion Activity 1
Work in a small group. Discuss the following questions and be ready to share your responses with the class.
- What do you think about the rapid development of AGI?
- Do you anticipate a point in the future when we are no longer able to control AGI? Why? Why not?
- How do you foresee AGI influencing various industries?
- Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of AGI?
- What ethical considerations should be taken into account when developing AGI?
- What challenges and opportunities does the development of AGI present?
- What role should governments, industries, and the general public play in shaping the ethical guidelines and policies governing AGI development?
Discussion Activity 2
Listen to the interview “Experts issue a dire warning about AI and encourage limits be imposed” and share your understanding of AGI with your classmates. Discuss the following questions:
- How does Professor Niekum use the example of the robot and the ladder to explain the alignment problem?
- Why do some AI developers now feel that AI must be regulated?
- What are some harmful consequences we are seeing from AI already?
- How does Professor Niekum describe AGI?
Reading Activity 1
Read the article What is OpenAI Project Q*? AGI Superintelligence Explained. Discuss the following questions with a classmate.
- What is Project Q* AGI?
- What ethical concerns have OpenAI researchers raised about Project Q*?
- How does Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, describe AGI?
- What was the reaction to his statement?
Phase 2: Comprehension
The purpose of this phase is to help you expand your knowledge of the debates around online education and accessibility. You will watch one short video and read two texts. In Listening Activity 2, The video will provide you with some background information on accessibility. Review the questions below before watching the video. For Reading Activity 1, you will answer a series of comprehension questions. For Reading Activity 2, you will define some key terms and write a descriptive summary of the text.
Listening Activity 1
Listen to the selection from the TED Talk The Exciting Perilous Journey Toward AGI by Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI chief scientist and then answer the following questions:
- Timestamp – 0:00-1:20
- Given the rate of progress of AI, what question does Illya raise?
- Timestamp – 1:20-4:46
- How does Illya define artificial intelligence?
- What motivated him to pursue a career in the field of AI?
- How does he envision the future of digital brains?
- Timestamp – 4:46-7:01
- What is the difference between AI and AGI?
- How can AGI impact the healthcare industry?
- Timestamp – 7:01-12:24
- How does he foresee the future of AGI?
Reading Activity 2
Read the article Rise of artificial general intelligence: risks and opportunities and write a 200 word summary using one of the following prompts.
Summary Prompt 1: Based on the article, write a summary essay in which you address both the major risks and benefits associated with the development of AGI (word limit 200 words).
Summary Prompt 2: With the continued development of AGI, what does the author suggest are possible outcomes for the future of humankind? (word limit: 200 words)
Phase 3: Simulation
In this phase, you will be given a role to play in a simulated discussion event (e.g., a 45-minute panel discussion). It is important that you understand the context and your role to prepare for the role-playing.
The Context
The potential benefits and risks associated with the development of AGI have garnered considerable attention among members of the media, industry, and government. The Modernization and Technology Committee of the State of Oklahoma House of Representatives is holding a special session for AGI developers, scholars, government officials, and industry representatives to discuss whether the development of AGI should be regulated.
Agenda: Should the development of AGI be regulated, or should companies be able to develop AGI without restrictions in Oklahoma?
Roles
You will be assigned a role to play in this simulation phase. There are five participant roles on each side of the debate and one moderator role.
Moderator: Government Modernization and Technology Committee Chair
Your task is to introduce the issue at the beginning of the panel discussion, welcome the participants, and moderate the discussions. Allow every participant (role) about 3-5 minutes to talk and ensure everyone gets a turn to express their opinion. Times may vary depending on class size and time limit. Develop one question for each group’s presentation and ask the question after their presentation. The moderator role can be played by students or the course instructor.
AGAINST REGULATING AGI DEVELOPMENT
Role 1. AGI Researcher
Description
- You are against regulating AGI development because you believe strict regulation will stifle innovation and hinder progress. You argue that a more free environment will allow for faster and greater technological advancements. Additionally, you posit that imposing restrictions on AGI development could potentially deprive society of the numerous benefits that AGI can offer.
- Potential sources:
Role 2. OpenAI Representative (AGI Developer)
Description
- You oppose regulating AGI development as you believe its benefits outweigh its perceived risks. You argue that, in contrast to the evident advantages of AGI, concerns about potential risks are speculative and may lack validity.
- Potential source:
Role 3. Economic Analyst
Description
- You are against regulating AGI development, asserting that restrictions could hinder economic growth. You contend that if AGI development is not restricted, it can significantly contribute to the global economy and improve productivity. You also contend that although the advent of AGI may render many jobs obsolete, new jobs will be created.
- Potential sources:
Role 4. Environmentalist
Description
- You are against regulating AGI development, highlighting that AGI can help address different global environmental issues, such as climate change and greenhouse gas emissions.
- Potential sources:
Role 5. Medical Doctor
Description
- You are against regulating AGI development as you believe AGI can revolutionize healthcare and medical advances.
- Potential sources:
IN FAVOR OF REGULATING AGI
Role 6.
Description
- You advocate for the regulation of AGI development due to concerns about its potential impact on employment. You believe that AGI can put many jobs at risk. For instance, driverless taxis have been allowed to carry passengers in California. Many other types of jobs will be automated by intelligent machines in the next twenty years, resulting in more job losses.
- Potential sources:
Role 7. Legal Scholar
Description
- You support regulating AGI development because you are concerned that AGI tools can violate copyright laws.
- Potential sources:
Role 8. Privacy Representative
Description
- You advocate for regulating AGI development due to concerns about potential data privacy issues. The advent of more advanced AGI tools raises the risk of companies tracking consumers’ personal information and exploiting it for their own gain.
- Potential sources:
Role 9. Cybersecurity Expert
Description
- You are in favor of regulating AGI development, as you are concerned that these powerful tools could fall into the hands of cybercriminals who could target corporate servers. Furthermore, you highlight that the increasing sophistication of AGI tools could heighten vulnerabilities in digital systems, posing significant threats.
- Potential sources:
Role 10. Arts Representative
Description
- You are in favor of regulating AGI development because you have concerns about intellectual property and ownership. Also, you believe that AGI can put artists’ livelihoods at risk.
- Potential sources:
Phase 4: Reflection
In this phase, you will critically assess the simulation and consider the persuasiveness of each argument.
Debriefing Activity: I
In small groups, discuss the following questions. Be prepared to share your thoughts with the whole class.
- What did you think about the topic for this simulation? Were you already familiar with it?
- Was it easy or difficult to create an argument for your side of the issue? Why?
- What did you think of your role in the simulation? Did you personally agree or disagree with your role’s required stance on the issue?
Critical Reflection Activity
In small groups, discuss the following questions. Be prepared to share your thoughts with the whole class.
- Did any participants/groups make particularly persuasive arguments? If so, which one/s? What made the arguments more persuasive?
- Did any of the participants/groups make arguments that you thought were weak? If so, what were the arguments? What made them weak?
- Which individual participant did you find the most knowledgeable / most persuasive in the role play? Why?
- Which group did you find most persuasive? Why?
Phase 5: Application
In this final phase, you will synthesize your understanding of AGI and the potential benefits and risks associated with its development, integrating these insights into a compelling and coherent argument. You can refer to the lectures, readings, and class discussions to support your argument. You can choose one of the following options:
OPTION 1: Letter to the Editor
You are writing a letter to the editor of your university’s newspaper. The purpose of your letter is to present your stance on the ongoing discussion around regulating the development of AGI. Through your letter, you aim to influence the university’s policymakers to take a stand on AGI development.
Prompt: In the form of a letter to the editor, write about AGI development to raise the audiences’ awareness of the potential effects that AGI development can have on society. In the letter, express your opinion about the necessity of regulating AGI. Support your argument by drawing upon the various perspectives in the lectures, reading passages, and class discussions. Use a catchy title for your letter to draw people in. Your letter should be 300-500 words long.
Option 2: Podcast Episode
You are creating an episode for your university’s podcast, where you express your viewpoint on the current debate about the regulation of AGI development. Your objective with this episode is to persuade the policymakers at your university to adopt a position on the matter of AGI development.
Prompt: Write a script for a podcast about the necessity of regulating AGI development and its implications. Then, using the script, create an episode of your university’s podcast. Post your episode to the podcast hosting platform of your choice (e.g. Podbean, Buzzsprout, Soundcloud, etc.). Your podcast episode should be 5-10 minutes in length.
Option 3: Argumentative Essay
Prompt: Write an argumentative essay in which you argue in favor or against regulating AGI development. You should use the information provided in the simulation and/or the briefings and acknowledge the arguments different from your own. Your essay should be 300-500 words.
Option 4: News Segment
You have been invited by your university’s news program to share your opinion about the regulation of AGI. Your goal is to persuade the policymakers at your university to take action regarding AGI development.
Prompt: Write a script for a news segment about the necessity of regulating AGI development and its implications. Then, using the script, video record yourself sharing your opinion about AGI development. Post your news segment to YouTube. Your news segment should be 5-10 minutes.
References
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